The WMO has said there is a 93 percent chance of the hottest year on record in at least one year between 2022 and 2026, after which it will likely move 2016 from the top position to second.
To create accurate information for global warming decision-makers, WMO’s annual update draws on the knowledge of internationally renowned climate scientists and the best prediction tools from leading climate centers around the world.
Since 2015, when it was close to zero, the chances of temporarily reaching 1.5 °C have gradually increased. The target was likely to exceed 10 percent between 2017 and 2021. For the years 2022-2026, this probability has reached about 50 percent.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said his analysis shows the world is moving closer to temporarily meeting the lower goal of the Paris climate agreement. He said the 1.5°C figure was not a coincidence, but was more a prediction of when the climate impact would become more devastating to individuals and the Earth.
According to the provisional WMO report on the state of the global climate, the global mean temperature in 2021 was 1.1 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline.